Between Snow and Fire: The 2019 Iranian Fuel Protests
What Is Happening Right Now in Iran?
On the morning of Friday the 15th of November, as Tehran woke up to snowfall that signals the coming of winter, the streets were starting to burn. Millions of Iranian citizens have taken to the streets to protest against the unpopular decision by the Rouhani administration to increase the price of petrol. According to the plan announced by the government the price of petrol, which is heavily subsidized in Iran, will be increased by 50% for the first 60 litres purchased each month with any more purchased above that threshold being increased to 300%. The government has tried to justify this plan by claiming that 60 million Iranians in the most disadvantaged economic conditions (out of a total population of 83 million) will benefit from these increases. What should be considered is that when the price of oil increases, the prices of other goods will follow suit in scenarios such as this one.
During the weekend, over 80,000 people in a hundred cities have taken part in these protests against this government initiative. Government buildings and gas stations have been stormed and set on fire, but most of the protests have proceeded peacefully. Drivers have abandoned their cars on roads and highways to cause traffic jams and have utilized apps such as Waze to inform other participants of where to stop their cars.
The response of the Iranian authorities and security forces has been nothing short of violent. Amnesty international reports that more than 100 people have been killed, people inside the country say there are already over 200 deaths during the manifestations; just in 5 days.
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Internet Shutdown
Internet monitoring website NetBlocks has confirmed that Iranian intelligence and security organisations have been jamming and interfering with internet services in an effort to hamper the ability of protestors to communicate and coordinate with each other in and outside of the country. On Sunday night, internet access was almost completely shut down. Such internet blackouts could possibly allow Iranian authorities to employ even more violent tactics against protestors without fear of Iranian citizens and the international community at large being aware of such acts.
Since Friday, hashtags related to the protests have gone viral on Twitter such as #IranProtests, #IslamicRepublicMustGo and #IranRegimeChange.
Twitter, Facebook, Instagram and Telegram have been invaluable to protestors, not only to coordinate and communicate with one another during demonstrations, but to also share their own narrative outside of their borders and alternative to the narrative being put out by the Iranian government. Protestors have shared videos and images of clashes with security forces as well as make appeals to the international community. The videos and images that have come to us from the streets of Iran have been the result of ordinary citizens who have used anti-filter apps such as Tor among other VPN and proxy services. These browsers are illegal in Iran but are easily accessible on the internet and at mobile shops. They are small but significant gestures of rebellion that confirm the potential of social mobilisation in the country. As Radio Farda reports, Iranian authorities have been issuing warnings to citizens through SMS messages ordering them to leave and avoid protest gatherings otherwise they will face serious consequences.
Previous Uprisings
In recent years, international attention on Iran has mainly focused on the nation’s foreign policy. In May of 2018, the United States withdrew from the 2015 nuclear agreement, and in the summer of 2019, Iran once again was the centre of world news in regards to their actions in the Strait of Hormuz which involved attacks on foreign oil tankers followed by drone strikes on Saudi Arabian oil facilities. In addition to their involvement in the Syrian Civil War and uprisings in Lebanon and Iraq. In recent days, Iran has been in the spotlight due to announcements of new oil fields and new measures regarding the implementation of nuclear energy. What escapes the Western point of view however, is the voice of Iranian society and the perception of the distance between the Iranian people and their government.
Over the last decade, the Iranian people have repeatedly voiced their dissent, in particular in 2009 when students and the middle class took to protest known as Green Movement, and between 2017 and 2018 when the least wealthy and most conservative members of society took to the streets.
In June of 2009, following the fraudulent outcome of the presidential elections, the largest public demonstrations since the 1979 revolution were held. The protests were severely suppressed by the police. The main leader of the Green Movement, Hossein Mousavi, is still under house arrest. The number of victims of the suppression is still not clearly known.
On the 28th of December 2017, protesters took to the streets of the city of Mashhad to express discontent over the economic crisis, which lead to rising prices of basic food supplies such as eggs and poultry. The protests quickly spread to over 70 cities within the week. According to FreedomHouse, around 4,900 people were arrested during the period of anti-government protests and at least 21 people were killed during clashes with police forces. 90% of those arrested were under 25 years old.
In both cases, even before the army was deployed, the government had cut internet access. This may seem like a minor aspect when compared to the serious human rights violations committed by the government and religious establishment, but it is not. Public debate is extremely limited in Iran, information and entertainment channels are heavily censored by authorities, so protestors mainly rely on social media to coordinate protests and exchange information. Social media does not have a direct impact on authoritarian regimes, but they are important as they allow the citizens living under said regimes to represent themselves even when freedom of expression is scarce.
The use of such strategies should not be taken for granted because it presupposes a certain degree of awareness that develops over time, not only in Iran, but for the rest of the region as well.
This Is NOT Just a Protest
The escalation of violence during protests is never a good sign. The Iranian security forces have been caught firing on protestors as well as firing tear gas into building courtyards. While some protestors are giving flowers to soldiers of the Iranian Army, others are singing “Death to the Dictator”.
The religious establishment and the Supreme Leader of Iran, Ali Khamenei say that these protests are part of a plot perpetrated by the enemies of Iran. The economy is on its knees and unemployment is rising. This is partly due to the sanctions placed against Iran by the United States. These protests are the manifestation of discontent held by a population that has long sought and demands higher democratic and economic standards. The Iranian people have lost faith in Rouhani, the moderate president who is now seen by the people as nothing more than a mere puppet in the service of stronger powers in the Iranian establishment. In the hope of reducing violence, the next test will be the parliamentary elections due to be held in February 2020, in which the people of Iran will face an important political decision during a time of extreme political fragility.
